Investigating wet-cold and cultural heritage-affecting compound events in Greece
Loading...
Date
2025-03-17
Authors
Μαρκαντώνης, Ιάσων
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
Compound climate and weather events have become an increasingly critical area of research due to their potential to exacerbate environmental, societal, and infrastructural risks. This thesis focuses on wet-cold compound events (WCCEs) in Greece, analyzing their historical occurrence (1980–2004), projecting their future changes (2025–2049), and assessing the potential impact of various compound events on built cultural heritage degradation. Through the integration of observational data, regional climate models (RCMs), statistical clustering methods, and impact-based analyses, this research provides novel insights into the dynamics, drivers, and consequences of these extreme events.
The historical analysis of WCCEs in Greece reveals that these events are predominantly influenced by synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, with moisture-rich air masses originating primarily from the North, Northwest, and the Atlantic Ocean. Using backward trajectory (BT) clustering and Weather Pattern (WP) classification, the study identifies dominant air mass origins and large-scale conditions that favor WCCE formation. The findings show that the higher elevation stations such as Tripoli and Kastoria and accordingly the mountainous regions, are particularly vulnerable, as cold air outbreaks interact with Mediterranean moisture sources, resulting in increased precipitation and sub-zero temperatures. Future climate projections based on EURO-CORDEX RCM simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios indicate a significant reduction in WCCEs across Greece by mid-century. This decline is attributed to rising winter temperatures and a weakening of cold air intrusions from Northern Europe, which reduces the likelihood of sub-zero conditions coinciding with heavy precipitation.
The study also investigates the impact of climate extremes on cultural heritage, focusing on porous building materials susceptible to weathering processes. The results quantify the probability of occurrence of prolonged precipitation, frost cycles and salt transitions that affect the surface of monuments. The climatology of the period 1980-2004 is followed by the investigation of possible alterations in the period 2025-2049 using RCMs. These findings underscore the need for heritage climatology approaches to assess and mitigate climate risks to historical monuments and archaeological sites.
This thesis makes several key contributions to the study of compound climate events in Greece. It provides the first comprehensive climatological study of WCCEs in Greece, integrating historical data analysis with future climate projections. The application of advanced statistical techniques, including K-means clustering, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Weather Pattern classification, identifies atmospheric preconditions and future trends of WCCEs. A novel linkage between compound climate events and cultural heritage degradation is also established, emphasizing the need for adaptive conservation strategies in a changing climate.
The research highlights the pressing need for interdisciplinary approaches in climate risk assessment, adaptation planning, and cultural heritage conservation. As climate change continues to reshape weather extremes, future research should focus on high-resolution climate modeling, impact-based risk assessments, and integrated adaptation frameworks to safeguard both natural and built environments.
Description
Keywords
Compound events, Wet-cold compound events, Climate change, Porous materials, Monuments