Analysis of oil product throughput at the port of Rotterdam : the role of international prices and trade flows
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Date
2026-08-27
Authors
Κίτσου, Κωνσταντίνα
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Abstract
This thesis examines the factors associated with oil product throughput at the Port of Rotterdam, focusing on the role of international prices and trade flows. The Port of Rotterdam is one of Europe's most important logistics and energy hubs, as it connects global maritime trade routes with European industrial and consumer markets. Petroleum products represent a strategically significant part of the port's cargo activity, due to the port's strong role in energy imports, storage, refining and distribution. For this reason, understanding the determinants of oil product throughput is important for analysing the relationship between energy markets, international trade and port performance. The empirical analysis is based on a monthly dataset covering oil product throughput and a set of economic, trade and market-related variables. Oil product throughput is used as the dependent variable, while the explanatory variables include Brent oil prices, imports, exports, the Baltic Dry Index, the EUR/USD exchange rate, German industrial production and a COVID-19 dummy variable. The study applies multiple linear regression using Ordinary Least Squares. In addition to the full model, two further specifications are estimated by excluding imports and exports separately. This approach is used in order to examine the stability of the results and to address the strong relationship between the two trade variables. The findings show that oil product throughput at the Port of Rotterdam is associated with both market-specific and macroeconomic factors. Brent oil prices have a negative and statistically significant relationship with throughput, suggesting that increases in oil prices are associated with lower oil product movements through the port. Imports and exports show positive and statistically significant coefficients, confirming the importance of trade flows for port activity. The Baltic Dry Index is negatively associated with throughput, indicating that higher freight market pressures may be linked to lower oil product throughput during the examined period. The EUR/USD exchange rate and German industrial production show positive relationships with throughput, while the COVID-19 dummy variable is negative and statistically significant across all specifications. Overall, the results suggest that oil product throughput at the Port of Rotterdam is not determined by a single factor, but by the interaction of energy prices, trade activity, freight market conditions, exchange rate movements, industrial production and external shocks. The thesis contributes to the understanding of oil-related port activity by focusing specifically on petroleum product throughput within one of Europe's most important energy gateways.
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Keywords
Port of Rotterdam, Petroleum products, International trade