How efficient and predictable is the betting market
Loading...
Date
2023-11-29
Authors
Κούρτης, Δημήτριος
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
In this dissertation, we analyze the efficiency of betting markets in the top five Eu ropean football leagues over a 10-year period (2012-2022). Employing an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model with both average and best available odds, we scrutinize the bookmaker commission and forecast error across the English Pre mier League, Spain La Liga, Italy Serie A, Germany Bundesliga, and France Ligue 1. The analysis reveals a stark contrast in market dynamics: while the Bundesliga and La Liga consistently exhibit market efficiency with no significant deviations in and , suggesting odds well-aligned with actual outcomes, the Premier League and Serie A display notable inefficiencies in specific seasons, as indicated by significant and values. These variations imply occasional overestimation or underestimation of event probabilities by bookmakers. This decade-long study underscores the complex and varied nature of sports betting markets in Europe, providing crucial insights for bettors and analysts in strategizing and understanding bookmaker be havior in football betting.
Description
Keywords
Efficient market hypothesis, Betting markets, Betting