Price forecasting for Greek electricity market
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Date
2025-07-03
Authors
Μπαμπαγιούρη, Αικατερίνη
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Abstract
The very chapter of the dissertation contributed to this comprehensive study is detailed below. Chapter 1introduced the balancing market context in Greece and formulated the forecasting problem, emphasizing its importance for market efficiency and stability. Chapter 2 detailed the design and operation of the Greek electricity markets (day-ahead, intraday, and balancing), providing foundational knowledge of how imbalance pricing works and highlighting historical challenges. Chapter 3 reviewed relevant literature on electricity price forecasting and imbalance markets, drawing lessons from previous studies and identifying gaps addressed by this work. Chapter 4 presented the methodology and model development, describing the regression approach, the selection of predictors, and the rationale for focusing on peak price timing and magnitude. Chapter 5 focused on how the forecasting model was implemented and assessed using real historical data. It presented results across several statistical measures, including R², RMSE, and nMAE, and examined specific cases that illustrated the model’s strengths and limitations. The concluding chapter, chapter 6, drew together the main conclusions, outlined how this work might be extended and offered some personal reflections on the research methodology followed. Overall, this dissertation has shown that forecasting extreme balancing prices, especially their timing, is meaningful and achievable in the Greek electricity market. The approach delivers insights that can help market participants and system operators anticipate costly balancing prices and operate more effectively in an increasingly complex energy landscape.
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Keywords
Electricity markets, Energy markets, Price forecasting, Matlab