Ο πόλεμος Ουκρανίας-Ρωσίας και η αναδιάρθρωση των εμπορικών ροών της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης
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Date
2026-10-06
Authors
Κούτρας, Νικόλαος Σωτήριος
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Abstract
This dissertation examines the impact of economic sanctions on trade flows between the European Union, Russia, and the United States of America, focusing on the period following the outbreak of the war and the imposition of sanctions in February 2022. The analysis is based on the econometric Difference-in-Differences (DiD) method, applying a Two-Way-Fixed Effects model to six key categories of traded goods, such as oil, cereals, and total trade more broadly. To ensure the validity of the model results, parallel trend tests were conducted. The empirical results show that the overall trend in trade with the control group (U.S.A.) was upward or stable, while the corresponding flows to and from Russia recorded a significant decline. Thorough statistical tests demonstrate that factors such as seasonality do not have a statistically significant impact on the variation in trade flows. Conversely, it is confirmed that
the exogenous impact of the war is responsible for the decline in trade between the EU and Russia. The broader context of the study reveals the effectiveness of the sanctions, which acted
as a catalyst, causing a widespread reduction in trade flows and the decoupling of the EU from Russia.
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Keywords
Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση, Ρωσία, Αμερική, Η.Π.Α., Ρωσο-Ουκρανικός πόλεμος, Οικονομικές κυρώσεις, Εμπορικές ροές